While there’s been plenty of analysis of last Tuesday’s midterm results, it’s hard to ignore the Mahoning Valley, which includes several counties on the state’s eastern border and has played a critical role in many statewide elections. This time around, it buoyed Democrats.
Gov.-elect Amy Acton, who is from the valley, made impressive gains there. She improved on former Vice President Kamala Harris’ 2024 political performance in the Youngstown-Warren area as well as in all 88 Ohio counties. One county in the valley was a harbinger of a major political shift – or perhaps just a sign of an especially bad election for Republicans: Trumbull County.
Acton beat Republican Vivek Ramaswamy in Trumbull by a 52% to 45% margin, according to final but unofficial state election results. Republican President Donald Trump carried the county 58% to 41% in 2024.
The 24-point net swing in favor of Democrats in Trumbull County was nearly the largest in the state, second only to the 25-point swing Democrats enjoyed in Jackson County.
For a larger map, click here.
A quick look under the hood shows just how profoundly Republican support in Trumbull County fell. Acton got 38,197 votes in Trumbull County, roughly 700 fewer than Harris did. Ramaswamy received 32,968 votes – 21,607 fewer votes than President Trump received. Stated another way, that’s a 1.7% drop in Democratic votes versus a 39.6% drop in Republican votes.
Kathy DiCristofaro, the vice chair of the Trumbull County Democratic Party, said she started noticing a political shift in her community in late summer.
Democrats had changed their approach this year to send canvassers to talk to unaffiliated voters, including some outside of core Democratic areas like Warren. But relatively few voters were willing to open their doors. Around August, people were more receptive and began sharing their concerns about data centers and scandals in the Trump administration, like allegations that Kimberly Guilfoyle, a former ambassador to Greece, had pressured a top Ohio Trump donor to pay off her $100,000 in credit card bills.
“They would use the word ‘corruption.’ And the tariffs. Tariffs came up. They’re paying for that,” DiCristofaro said.
On the coattails of Acton’s success, Democrats also won county commissioner and county auditor seats they’d lost in 2022, when Republican Gov. Mike DeWine won the county with 66% of the vote.
After a decade of Republican dominance – which ended a long period of Democratic control – DiCristofaro said she now believes her party can compete in her county again.
“I never did believe it was a red county and that we couldn’t come back from that. I do feel that it’s purple. And as long as we are doing our job delivering for the voters, if we have transparency, they’re going to vote for the Democrats.”
— Andrew
Republicans pass gun bill before a blue wave of lawmakers can stop them
With the midterm’s blue wave in the rearview mirror, Ohio Republican lawmakers have returned to regularly scheduled programming: deregulating the state’s gun laws.
The Ohio House on Tuesday passed legislation that nixes the requirement for federal registration to own firearm silencers and “short barreled rifles,” which includes shotguns that are designed with short barrels and those modified by owners who saw the barrels off.
The Senate concurred Tuesday night, meaning the bill goes to DeWine for his signature. DeWine hasn’t commented on the bill.
Democrat Amy Acton will take over as governor in January. She’s bolstered by the Democratic Party’s gains in the House, which prevent the Republicans from overriding an Acton veto along party lines. This profoundly disrupts the ability Republicans have enjoyed over the past several years to pass bills at their whims regardless of what Democrats think. (On a related note, Republicans are debating whether to change the rules on vetoes. More on that later.)
“Upcoming changes in our state government will likely make it far more difficult to secure the attention and votes needed to advance and finalize this legislation,” Grant Balzer, a lobbyist for Gun Owners of America, explained to lawmakers.
Gun laws capture the legislative paradigm well. Since the early 2000s, Ohio Republicans have steadily whittled down various state laws restricting gun possession. That includes passing a “stand your ground” law creating new legal protections for people who shoot others and claim self-defense and passing a “constitutional carry” law that removes legal requirements around training, background checks and seeking a permit before carrying a concealed firearm.
If Republicans try to run this same bill next year, it might get vetoed by a gun-skeptical governor-elect. To overcome this, Republicans would need to convert some Democrats. Notably, a small set of them voted yes on the gun bill Tuesday.
Lame duck continues
Tuesday’s gun vote came during the first in what’s expected to be weekly “lame duck” sessions held through mid-December.
Among the next items on the agenda: picking new leaders for the legislative session that starts in January. House Speaker Matt Huffman, of Lima, is facing some heat after Republicans lost between eight and 12 House seats last week. Huffman told reporters he’s still confident he’ll be reelected in a closed-door vote next Tuesday.
“I’m sure there are going to be two or three people who don’t want to vote for me. But I don’t think it’s close,” he said.
Also potentially on the agenda: Rolling back the power of the governor’s office and other statewide offices that Democrats are set to take over in January.
Huffman acknowledged getting “a lot of calls” about the topic. But there are only two specific proposals.
One, from state Rep. Ron Ferguson of Wintersville, would preserve Republicans’ ability to overturn the governor’s vetoes. It would lower the number of votes needed to block a veto. Ferguson’s proposal is a constitutional amendment, which means it would ultimately need voter approval to take effect. It’s unclear what support it has among Republicans.
Another, from GOP state Rep. Brian Stewart, is far more modest. It would require state agencies to give greater advance notice for spending requests submitted to a state panel that provides legislative oversight of routine state spending.
— Andrew
Ohio men on the rise
Two Ohio congressional Republicans landed new leadership roles on Tuesday in the wake of last week’s election. Urbana Rep. Jim Jordan is set to be the next House Republican leader now that the GOP has fallen into the minority, while Cleveland-area Sen. Bernie Moreno is set to lead the National Republican Senatorial Committee, Senate Republicans’ national political campaign group.
— Andrew
In the news
Honda announces plans to build a new factory in Ohio: Honda is expanding its presence in Ohio, announcing plans this week to build a new $3 billion factory with 2,000 workers near an existing plant in Marysville. Read more from Car and Driver.
Post-election panel on higher education: Our Signal Statewide colleague Amy Morona is on an upcoming panel alongside other reporters covering higher education talking about how the midterms will affect college in America. This will be at 11 a.m. Thursday. You can sign up here.
Advocates, lawmakers push to end child marriage in Ohio. A bill to raise the marriage age to 18 or older, without exception, stalled in the Ohio Senate when some Republican senators quietly objected to it in a closed-door GOP caucus meeting. Read more from Laura Bischoff of the Columbus Dispatch.
Watch Andrew and Jake riff on the midterms on Signal Statewide’s podcast and show here.
