Democratic primary turnout rebounds
Democratic turnout in Ohio’s 2026 primary rebounded sharply on Tuesday, nearly matching Republican participation after trailing badly just four years earlier.
791,355 Ohioans requested Democratic ballots for the election, and 817,159 requested Republican ballots. That’s compared to 2022, when more than 1 million Ohioans requested Republican ballots against 540,000 Democratic ones.
The improved Democratic turnout occurred despite the top of the ticket – governor and U.S. Senate – lacking competitive races this year for both parties. Ohio Democratic Party Chair Kathleen Clyde said that, overall, state Democrats saw their highest turnout in a primary midterm election since 2006 – a year that was a high-water mark for the party.
“I look at the similarities in the cycles. We’re in the second term of an unpopular Republican president,” Clyde said.
Looking at the numbers, Republicans saw ballot requests drop in most counties – with some of the biggest percentage drops happening in large urban counties and western Ohio.
The largest Democratic increases happened in the Columbus and Cincinnati areas – general areas of growth for the party – including in Butler County, where Democratic ballot requests doubled to around 15,000. Democratic requests were down in some areas where the party has struggled, like eastern and western Ohio.
So does primary turnout matter for a general election? The evidence is thin, especially since it’s so heavily influenced by whether or not a given election has compelling races. But the Pew Research Center did find that in 2018 Democrats saw a spike in primary ballot requests ahead of national party success in November. Overall turnout on Tuesday was about 20%, the lowest number since 2014.
In an interview, Ohio Republican Party Chair Alex Triantafilou said primary turnout is “almost never indicative” of general election turnout.
“There are so many factors at play, from the county level, issues, levies, things that drive turnout for a bunch of reasons. It’s hard to use that as an indicator,” he said.
Kyle Kondik, a political analyst at the University of Virginia, said Democrats in other states have seen similar turnout boosts in primary elections this year. He said that, and polling, suggest the party’s most dedicated supporters are more engaged. But, he said these groups are so small they’re unrepresentative of the broader electorate, and general elections are won by persuading voters.
“Does it have predictive value for November? I don’t really think so,” Kondik said. “Are the statewide races going to be closer than the [2024] presidential race was? I think absolutely they will be.”
Macropolitics matters
Democratic Ohio Rep. Allison Russo had a good Tuesday, winning a competitive primary to run for Secretary of State.
She offered many specifics for why voters should pick her in November, with emphasis on ending gerrymandering, writing fair language for ballot questions, and tearing down barriers to voting.
But, as she acknowledged in an interview, sometimes there are bigger forces in play for downballot, statewide candidates – forces that, both historically and currently speaking, are in Democrats’ favor.
“Certainly, statewide politics is always going to be influenced by what’s happening at the national level, for better or worse,” she said. “The winds are certainly in the favor of Democrats. But right now, our job is to do the work.”
Schools were Tuesday’s biggest losers
Rather than any partisan candidate, local boards of education around Ohio might have been the biggest losers Tuesday night.
All around the state, voters rejected dozens of income and property tax hikes (or, in some cases, extensions) to fund school operations. Forty-two of 66 tax levies – income and property – failed Tuesday night, according to the Ohio School Board Association.
Responses from policymakers and advocates varied.
Bill Phillis, executive director of the Ohio Coalition for Equity and Adequacy of School Funding, said state lawmakers have systematically underfunded schools, putting districts in the unfortunate position of asking already-squeezed voters for cash. It’s a position joined by Democrats and public schools themselves.
“The failures certainly don’t help the kids,” Phillis said.
Sen. Jerry Cirino, a Lake County Republican who chairs the Senate Finance Committee, said the results reflect a tax-fatigued electorate and dissatisfaction with the quality of public schools.
In an interview, he also called for K-12 school consolidation, which is seen as something of a third rail in politics.
“Something is gonna have to give at some point in the future. We may be at the very beginning of that right now,” he said.
You can read more about some of the levies that failed, other policymakers’ takes, and what it all means from Jake here.
Down goes solar
The union, grassroots and environment-backed effort to reverse a Richland County Commission-imposed ban on wind and solar power in most of the county failed Tuesday.
The 53%-47% vote was perhaps closer than expected given Republican dominance in the north central county, but it fell short regardless.
The failure (the second since such referendums were established in 2021) is a foreboding look at the political ability to counter a growing anti-solar movement in Ohio at the ballot box.
Election roundup
Washington
- Ohio’s 9th Congressional District race will be a 2024 rematch between one of the longest serving congresswomen of all time, Marcy Kaptur, a Democrat, and former state lawmaker Derek Merrin. The Northwest Ohio district has since gotten Trumpier, although the broader political environment looks like it’s tilting toward Democrats.
- Kristina Knickerbocker and Brian Poindexter won crowded Democratic primaries for Ohio’s 10th and 7th congressional districts. Both candidates were on the radar for national Democrats, who need strong candidates to achieve their longshot goals of flipping those seats.
- But in Ohio’s 15th Congressional District, another district on Democrats’ wish list, former state Rep. Adam Miller, Democrats’ 2024 congressional nominee, lost to former Ohio State professor Don Leonard. Miller had outspent Leonard, whose campaign attracted its widest attention when he was arrested at a No Kings protest in Grove City in March.
Columbus
- The (sometimes noisy) outsiders running for governor, secretary of state and attorney general all lost in landslides.
- Jay Edwards won by 7 points over state Sen. Kristina Roegner in the Republican primary for state treasurer, while Colleen O’Donnell won a four-way Republican primary for Ohio Supreme Court with 32% of the vote.
- House GOP incumbents Jason Stephens and Ron Ferguson – both foes, in different ways, of Republican House Speaker Matt Huffman – won Tuesday. Each man faced a Huffman-backed primary challenge and managed to win out.
- Two Democratic educators (Molly Schneider, Graig Bansek) whom state party leaders recruited to run for Statehouse seats in the Cleveland area failed to advance out of primaries, losing to Samantha Salamon and Mike Baker, respectively.
- In a competitive House district near Akron, Mike Kahoe (also backed by Huffman) beat Stephanie Stock in the GOP primary. The race drew attention given Kahoe’s age (24) and Stock’s decade of anti-vaccine advocacy.
- A switcheroo failed in Delaware County. Term-limited Republican incumbent Sen. Andrew Brenner ran for a seat held by Rep. Beth Lear, and vice versa. However, neither survived the Republican primary.
In the news
Coming this November: The Democratic and Republican tickets are set for November’s governor and U.S. Senate contests after Vivek Ramaswamy, Jon Husted, Amy Acton and Sherrod Brown all cruised to victory. Andrew Tobias gives an overview of both races so far and writes how the election could end being Ohio’s most consequential one in years.
