A big drop in international college student enrollment amid the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown could cost Ohio colleges and the state economy hundreds of millions of dollars.
New national projections estimate that 30% to 40% fewer international students will enroll at an American college or university for the first time this fall, dragging down total existing international enrollment by 15%, according to early data from the Association of International Educators, or NAFSA.
In Ohio, NAFSA estimates international enrollment could drop from 38,820 students in fall 2024 to about 33,000 students for the upcoming semester.
Colleges and universities depend on international students – who often pay full tuition and room and board rates – to help boost bottom lines and enrollment numbers.
Plus, those students help economies once they arrive in the United States by spending money. NAFSA estimates the country’s economy could lose $7 billion with these enrollment declines. Ohio’s economy could lose $200 million alone, according to the group’s estimates.
Fanta Aw, NAFSA’s executive director and CEO, called the economic hits “just the tip of the iceberg.”
“International students drive innovation, advance America’s global competitiveness, and create research and academic opportunities in our local colleges that will benefit our country for generations,” she said in a recent news release.
Why there could be fewer international college students this fall
One of the reasons NAFSA projects a large decline is because the Trump administration suspended visa interviews at its consulates around the world for three weeks beginning in late May.
Students need to have those interviews in order to receive the U.S. government’s stamp of approval. That pause coincided with the peak time appointments typically happen ahead of the fall semester, causing a disruption in visa processing, according to NAFSA.
Around the same time, the Trump administration implemented a travel ban, restricting and/or limiting access to the U.S. for residents of 19 countries.
Though the ban didn’t apply to current international students, many university leaders nationwide still asked students not to leave the U.S. “due to fears they could suddenly be unable to reenter the country,” the Washington Post reported.
Plus, the State Department directed consulates to start screening visa candidates’ online activities and social media accounts, which could lead to a drop in prospective applicants or to rejecting those already making their way through the system.
The government claimed the screening was necessary to “ensure that those applying for admission into the United States do not intend to harm Americans and our national interests,” the department said in a June press release.
This came after the government suspended the visas of about 2,000 international students – including several dozen in Ohio – before ultimately reinstating the majority of them earlier this year.
Marcello Fantoni, Kent State University’s vice president of global education, recently told Signal that the flurry of these federal moves could hurt international students’ perceptions of America’s higher education system.
“There is damage done there, and it will take a long time to be fixed,” he said in late May. “A long time.”
Ohio State doesn’t anticipate ‘significant change’ in overall international student enrollment
Another reason for the decline includes reports of limited visa appointments – or none at all – for international students at American consulates in India, China, Nigeria and Japan.
Most international students attending a university in Ohio come from India or China, mirroring national trends.
That’s also the case for the approximately 1,900 international students who enrolled at Cleveland State University last fall. University officials declined to share the number of returning international students for the upcoming semester with Signal, adding that they also “do not have a clear projection of how many new international students may arrive on campus this fall.”
Many universities don’t publicly share fall enrollment numbers until at least mid-September.
At a May board meeting, Cleveland State officials did share that they were anticipating a drop of about 600 international students at both the graduate and undergraduate levels, costing the university $11.5 million in lost tuition revenue.
Ohio State University was not anticipating a “significant change” as of late last month, a university spokesperson told Signal in an emailed statement. The state’s flagship university enrolled nearly 7,000 international students last year, higher than any other college in Ohio.
Back in May, Kent State officials told Signal they expected a 4% to 5% decrease in international graduate students this fall, down from 1,325 in fall 2024. Now, officials said only that they “expect to have fewer international students this year,” a spokesperson wrote Tuesday in an email.