Democrats shoot for the stars
Defense is the main goal for congressional Democrats in Ohio this year.
But they’re trying to make the case that they’re also going on offense.
This week, two Democrats formally launched their campaigns in Republican-held territory: Kristina Knickerbocker in Ohio’s 10th Congressional District and Brian Poindexter in the 7th District.
The campaign behind Knickerbocker, a first-time candidate, stands out as a potential measure of how far Democrats can stretch the political battlefield this year. The district is on the outer bounds of what’s really competitive, but conceivably could come into play if national conditions break strongly enough in Democrats’ favor.
Knickerbocker’s challenging Republican Rep. Mike Turner, of Dayton. Her biography reads like it’s straight out of Democratic central casting. Her campaign launch video touts her military background and incorporates common Democratic campaign themes of health care availability and affordability. In other words, it has the glossy polish of a promising candidate who’s being guided by a team of campaign consultants.
In the 7th District, Poindexter, a union ironworker and Brook Park City Council member, will announce today that he’s challenging Republican Rep. Max Miller of Rocky River. First, he would have to defeat his fellow Democrat, Ed FitzGerald, the former Cuyahoga County executive and 2014 gubernatorial nominee, in the May primary election.
“Democrats are on offense in OH-07 and OH-10 and will force both Max Miller and Mike Turner to answer for their disastrous record of ripping away health care and raising families’ costs to fund tax cuts for their billionaire donors,” said Riya Vashi, a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “We’ve won these seats before, and we will do so again in November when Ohio voters elect leaders who will actually fight for them.”
Are the districts really “in play”?
Both Knickerbocker and Poindexter are running in what the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee optimistically calls “in play” districts — places where Republicans are favored to win but where Democrats could pull off an upset under extremely favorable circumstances.
The theory goes like this: President Donald Trump won the 10th District by 8 percentage points last year, and former U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, narrowly won it.
Meanwhile, Democrats in the governor’s elections in New Jersey and Virginia last November outperformed Kamala Harris’ 2024 numbers by 9 to 10 percentage points.
If a similar electoral shift occurs this November, a place like Ohio’s 10th District could be competitive.
Democrats’ lift would be even higher in the 7th District (Trump +11) as well as the 15th District (Trump +10), represented by Columbus Rep. Mike Carey. But the same logic applies. All three districts became a little more Republican under the new congressional map state Republican and Democratic state lawmakers negotiated in October, which could give those three Republicans some needed cover.
So could Democrats really pull it off? On paper, Turner’s district looks the most winnable. But as a heavy dose of reality, Turner regularly outruns the top of the ticket and has been frustrating Democrats for years. And an eight-point partisan advantage is all but insurmountable in most cases.
Mike Marinella, a spokesperson for the National Republican Campaign Committee, said Democrats are dreaming.
“National Democrats are panicking and it shows. Reps. Turner, Miller, and Carey are battle-tested incumbents who consistently overperform and deliver results for Ohio, while Democrats resort to fantasy and spin. Reality isn’t on their side,” Marinella said.
Turner filed for reelection this week, disappointing congressional Democrats who’d included him on their “retirement watch list.”
In an interview with the Dayton Daily News this week after he filed for reelection, Turner didn’t sound like someone who viewed his race as a shoo-in.
“I’m endorsed by Donald Trump, but at the same time I think I’m able to balance my voice being important for the community and for representing all of the 10th District,” Turner said.
The big picture
Republicans currently hold 219 U.S. House seats and Democrats hold 213. Roughly 36 House seats nationally are more or less competitive, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
None of Ohio’s three “in play” seats make that list, which speaks to how much of a reach they are. But three other Ohio U.S. House seats held by Democrats that are top targets for both parties this year all appear on the list.
They are Rep. Marcy Kaptur of Toledo, whose district “leans Republican,” Rep. Greg Landsman of Cincinnati (“Democratic toss-up”) and Rep. Emilia Sykes of Akron (“leans Democrat”).
A government agency is born
It’s not often that Ohio launches a completely new state agency. But a new one got off the ground last week.
The Ohio Election Integrity Commission held its first meeting last Friday, setting rules, taking the oath of office and performing other rites of passage that government bodies complete after entering the world.
The new commission replaces the old Ohio Elections Commission, which had been in charge of enforcing state campaign finance law for decades. Republican legislators voted for the switch last July as part of the larger state budget bill.
What’s new about the new commission?
For starters, Secretary of State Frank LaRose, who plays a key role in the new agency, said it will be empowered to investigate improper voting or voter registration and not just campaign finance violations.
LaRose also said his goal for the new commission is to solve problems that led the old commission to be viewed as ineffectual. This includes clearing out millions of dollars of uncollected fines and figuring out which can’t realistically be recovered.
He also plans to establish a separate administrative offramp for routine cases – sort of like how courts separate traffic cases from more serious matters – that bogged down the old commission and contributed to a backlog of cases.
Like its predecessor, the new election commission will have the ability to issue civil fines – but criminal charges would require a referral to a prosecutor. It will have investigators from LaRose’s office at its disposal, which LaRose said could help it more effectively assemble criminal cases.
“This is a new day. We’re moving forward from that with, I think, a much more well-organized mission and set of procedures,” LaRose said.
An expensive state park and a fight about a $4.4 million watchtower
Xenia’s Great Council State Park, the newest addition to the state system, honors the history of the Native American and European settlers of the region. It was built in collaboration with the three federally recognized tribes that were forcibly removed by the government from the region in the mid-1800s.
Developing the park has cost the state about $15.5 million, plus another $8 million for a related pedestrian bridge.
The Ohio Department of Natural Resources on Monday asked for another $4.4 million for a 48-foot-tall observation structure, including educational kiosks, a bathroom and lookout points. This proved a watchtower too far for House Finance Chairman Brian Stewart. He sits on the Controlling Board, which oversees the release and transfer of certain state money.
He questioned the wisdom of, as he put it, spending a few million to help people look out at a cornfield.
“I guess my skepticism is, are we thinking that climbing a tower to look at an open field, and a museum, is going to somehow wind people’s clocks and get them to come to Great Council Park?” he said.
Ryan Frazee, chief of the Office of Budget and Finance for ODNR, said he hopes this is the last time the park will ask the state for money.
Stewart forced a vote on the matter, which scrambled party lines. State Sens. Andrew Brenner (R), Shane Wilkin (R), and Catherine Ingram (D) all voted in favor of the watchtower. Reps. Stewart (R), Mike Dovilla (R), and Bride Rose Sweeney (D) voted no.
In a rare tiebreaking vote for the Controlling Board’s typically sleepy affairs, Jill Schuler, the board president and non-lawmaker member, voted yes.
Yost blocks effort to repeal THC bill
A citizen group trying to repeal a new state law cracking down on THC products will face even more of a time crunch to collect hundreds of thousands of voter signatures, following a rejection Tuesday by state Attorney General Dave Yost.
In a letter, Yost laid out why he rejected the petitions from Ohioans for Cannabis Choice. He wrote the group’s paperwork didn’t give a “fair and truthful” summary of what Senate Bill 56 would do if it went into effect.
Yost’s three-page letter laid out a litany of highly technical issues he had with the summary. But it also hinted he hadn’t described everything the group needed to fix.
“The above instances are just a few examples of the summary’s omissions and misstatements, and further review will be undertaken should the matter be resubmitted,” said Yost, who has a recent history of throwing up roadblocks to citizen-backed ballot measures over petition wording.
The development means the intoxicating hemp industry-backed group will have to revise the petition to Yost’s liking before it can continue with the legal process of qualifying for the November ballot.
Only then could the group begin to try to collect the 248,092 voter signatures it would need to get to place SB 56 up for a statewide vote. The group must do this before a deadline in late March, when the law otherwise goes into effect.
In the news
Courtroom drama: Gov. Mike DeWine and U.S. Sen. Jon Husted could be among those called to testify as part of former FirstEnergy executives Michael Dowling and Chuck Jones’ defense against corruption charges later this month. That’s because DeWine and Husted’s names appeared on a list of 58 names filed by Jones and Dowling’s lawyers in court this week. Read more from Andrew Tobias.
More park fracking: A state board voted this week to open an additional 6,600 combined acres of public lands for natural gas drilling. Read more from Jake Zuckerman.
Deadly house parties: Dozens of shootings have broken out at crowded house parties hosted at Airbnbs, Vrbos and other short-term rentals since 2019. Cities want to impose new restrictions on these kinds of businesses, while a proposed state law would block cities from doing so. Read more from Jake.
Don’t miss this
The Columbus Dispatch published a story this week highlighting how Columbus’ Somali American community has responded as citizen investigators have descended on the city to uncover purported fraud.